Nvidia reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Feb. 25, after markets close, and the run-up has split analysts into two camps: those who see the stock as fairly priced after a volatile year, and those who argue the rally that has already delivered gains near 40 percent still has room to run.
The company has guided to revenue of $65 billion, plus or minus 2 percent, for the quarter ended Jan. 25. The consensus estimate sits slightly above that guidance at $65.56 billion, which would mark 66.7 percent growth from the year-ago quarter. Consensus earnings per share stands at $1.52, up from 89 cents a year earlier, a 70.8 percent increase. Nvidia has beaten consensus in three of its past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 2.8 percent, though one earnings model shows no clear signal either way this time.
Data Center revenue, the segment investors watch most closely, carries a consensus estimate of $58.72 billion, driven by continued demand for Blackwell-based GPUs from hyperscale and cloud customers. Gaming, Professional Visualization and Automotive are each expected to add smaller but steady contributions, continuing streaks of improvement that have run for eight, nine and seven consecutive quarters respectively.
The stock itself has gained almost 40 percent over the past year, trailing the roughly 83 percent advance in Advanced Micro Devices, Intel's nearly 80 percent gain and Broadcom's 53 percent rise, even as it outpaced the broader semiconductor industry's 37 percent climb. Shares have also pulled back from the 52-week high of $212.19 touched in October. That combination leaves the stock trading at a forward earnings multiple of roughly 25 times, below the sector's 28 times and well under the multiples commanded by Intel, AMD and Broadcom.
The Q4 guidance assumed no sales to China. Since issuing it, Nvidia has received government clearance to resume selling into the Chinese market, and some coverage argues that could push actual results above the guided figure, though nothing in Nvidia's own disclosures confirms that yet. The company is also deepening ties elsewhere in the chip supply chain, including a $5 billion investment tied to Intel's 2028 manufacturing roadmap.
Analyst coverage on the stock has swelled to 52 names over the trailing 12 months, with a Buy-rating bias near 96 percent and price targets that imply roughly 45 percent upside from recent levels, with some firms setting targets closer to double that. GF Securities is watching the mid-March GTC developer conference for signals on co-packaged optics and rack-scale hardware, while UBS points to supply-chain checks as reason for optimism heading into the print, even as it flags persistent doubts among some investors about how much further the AI buildout can run.
None of that settles the underlying disagreement. A discount multiple relative to chip peers reads as opportunity to bulls and as a market pricing in slower growth to skeptics, and Wall Street will not resolve which reading is correct until Nvidia actually reports.
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