Micron has guided fiscal third quarter revenue to a record $33.5 billion plus or minus $750 million at a gross margin of approximately 81 percent, and the contract pricing published since that outlook was filed suggests most of the increase is price rather than volume.
Fiscal second quarter revenue was $23.86 billion, against $13.64 billion in the prior quarter and $8.05 billion a year earlier. The fiscal third quarter midpoint implies roughly 40 percent sequential growth. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share are guided to $19.15 plus or minus $0.40, against $12.20 delivered in the second quarter.
The chief executive framed the run as execution. “Micron set new records across revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow in fiscal Q2, driven by a strong demand environment, tight industry supply, and our strong execution, and we expect significant records again in fiscal Q3,” said Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron's chairman, president and chief executive. Tight industry supply is the load-bearing clause in that sentence. Records assembled out of scarcity pricing unwind when the scarcity does, and nothing in the filed outlook separates the two.
TrendForce puts conventional DRAM contract prices up roughly 93 to 98 percent quarter on quarter in the first calendar quarter of 2026 and projects a further 58 to 63 percent in the second. Those are the contracts Micron's fiscal third quarter bills against. Set beside a 40 percent sequential revenue guide, a price curve of that shape leaves very little room for bit growth to be doing the work. TrendForce publishes no methodology with the ranges, and they are its own house series rather than an audited index, so they carry the weight of a vendor estimate and no more.
Operating expenses are guided to approximately $1.40 billion on a non-GAAP basis and approximately $1.60 billion on GAAP. GAAP diluted earnings per share are guided to $18.90 plus or minus $0.40. That leaves 25 cents between the two earnings lines, which is small against a nineteen dollar headline, so the record is not an artifact of what the adjusted figure leaves out.
Absent from the outlook table are the numbers that would settle the question. It runs to four rows, revenue, gross margin, operating expenses and diluted earnings per share, and carries no bit-shipment forecast, no HBM revenue split and no capital expenditure line. TrendForce reports the fiscal third quarter results are due on June 24, and if the contract curve holds through the print, the interesting disclosure will not be the revenue number but whether shipped bits moved at all.
Bootnote: Micron's fiscal calendar runs ahead of the civil one. The second quarter closed on February 26, so the fiscal third quarter straddles the first and second calendar quarters, and contract prices quoted by calendar quarter never map cleanly onto the results they end up inside.
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